Is it Better to Gamble Early or Late in Poker Tournaments?
Let’s face it, you are going to have to gamble to win a poker tournament. The better players know this. Good poker tournament players understand that they have to take chances and make moves which they would never make in a cash game. In fact a lot of solid cash game players are frustrated by tournaments because they can’t make the adjustment. They think that by sitting there and playing solid poker they should get good results.
They can’t. Playing solid poker means waiting for good cards and profitable situations that just don’t come around often enough (or at the right times) in a tournament setting. The blind pressure is enormous in these things and if you don’t get yourself a good sized stack soon that pressure is likely to break you. You just don’t stand much of a chance waiting for those good cash game situations.
The better tournament players know when and how to gamble it up in a way that works for them. You are going to have to win at least a few coin flips to make a top 3 finish, where the money is. So you want to be in there flipping coins to double your stack when you can. By being willing to do this you will scare out those who are less willing, and pick up lots of small pots and dead money here and there - giving you an edge over the timid and solid cash-game type players.
The type of coin flips you want to make when you are in good shape are pocket pair vs. AK, on either side. When you are not in good shape you would add any suited ace and medium suited connectors to that list, and when you are crippled you would add any ace and any suited king and maybe even any trouble hand. Notice that the worse off you are, the worse type hand you are forced to gamble with.
Understanding this, you would want to gamble early rather than late as to avoid being forced to make the short-stack gambles which widen your range so desperately.
But not too early! In the beginning there is no blind pressure and it is usually better to play solid poker and try to increase your stack a little, so that when you do start gambling you stand to win more on the coin flips. Wait a couple rounds until the blind pressure increases and the prize pool includes dead money from the early casualties. This increases your overlay on the tournament. In fact I sometimes just sit out for the first couple of orbits in order to accomplish this.
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